Calgary hopes to continue hot streak in bout with Edmonton
Football Betting Lines
09/01/2010 - Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Stampeders try to continue their winning ways on Monday evening as they take on the Edmonton Eskimos in a Western Division clash at McMahon Stadium.
The Stamps have the best record in the CFL through eight completed weeks of competition, losing just once to Toronto back on July 14 by a score of 27-24. Last week, the team outlasted a spunky British Columbia squad and captured a 48-35 victory. The last time Calgary started out 7-1 was 1996 when current BC head coach Wally Buono was at the helm. Even though he tossed a total of three interceptions, Henry Burris stepped up with 20-of-34 passing for 276 yards and a couple of touchdowns, while backup Drew Tate contributed with one passing major and another on the ground for the group as they generated 510 yards of total offense.
Wide receiver Ken-Yon Rambo was not only on the winning side with Calgary, he was also a unanimous choice for CFL Offensive Player of the Week thanks to his nine catches for 108 yards and two scores. Having come back strong from a knee injury that ended his 2009 season, Rambo now has four touchdowns in as many games.
As for the Eskimos, they've been a disappointment for much of the season, winning just once through the first seven games. But last week the team awoke from a slumber and came up with 17 unanswered points in posting a 17-14 win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders at home. Edmonton spotted the visitors a pair of touchdowns and then roared back by holding the Roughriders scoreless for the last three frames.
Kicker Noel Prefontaine was key to the comeback win as he converted a 37-yard field goal in the final minute of play to secure the upset win. Prefontaine, who was named the CFL's Special Teams Player of the Week for the second time, was responsible for all of the points scored in the second half and a total of 11 overall as the Eskimos snapped a two-game slide.
Edmonton starting quarterback Ricky Ray was pulled early in the game, but came back to move the ball down the field late and finished the outing 6-of-11 for 63 yards, although his one interception also led to the first points of the game when James Patrick picked off the first of three and ran it back 35 yards for the score. Backup Jared Zabransky tossed one touchdown to Arkee Whitlock, but was also picked off twice as he converted 8-of-17 passes for 109 yards in the victory.
Even though the Eskimos picked up a rare win last week, the quarterback position is still in disarray. Ray may be one of the more accurate passers in the league to this point with his 66.8 percent accuracy, but the fact that he has just as many interceptions (six) as he does touchdowns doesn't paint a pretty picture for this team. As a unit the Eskimos are sixth in the CFL in passing with 2,130 yards through eight games, but again the team has more INTs (10) than TDs (eight) through the air.
Having Whitlock help out on the ground certainly takes some of the focus off the troubles at quarterback, but the running back can only do so much as he averages a solid six yards per carry and is now second in the league with his 686 yards coming out of the backfield. With 764 yards from scrimmage, Whitlock is fifth in the CFL and at least gives the illusion that he could be a bigger player in the passing attack if needed.
While Burris has more passing majors than anyone else in the league at this point with 18, he is also tied with Darian Durant for the most interceptions with a dozen, so with the good also comes the bad in his case. But for the most part, throwing those picks has not hurt the Stamps all that much. When it comes to Burris hitting the airwaves against Edmonton over the years, the signal-caller has twice as many TDs (36) as INTs (18) over the course of 20 appearances. Of late the numbers have really favored Burris in fact, the QB having tossed 14 majors and a mere four interceptions in the last six meetings. In all but one of those six games Burris, who is on the verge of overtaking Dieter Brock for 10th place on the CFL's all-time passing list, has thrown for at least 305 yards, so to change the mode of attack at this stage might be foolish.
Even though Edmonton owns a convincing 121-79-3 mark in the all-time series dating back to the 1949 campaign, it is Calgary that has dominated in recent years with four straight wins and five in the last six encounters overall. The most recent meeting took place on August 15 with the Stamps stomping the Esks by a final of 56-15 at home.
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The only matchup of the week that pits two teams that are at least .500 so far this season against each other has the Hamilton Tiger-Cats entertaining the Toronto Argonauts at Ivor Wynne Stadium on Monday afterno
<< Winnipeg tangles with Saskatchewan on Sunday afternoon
Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Back in action after a lengthy layoff, the
Winnipeg Blue Bombers head back to the gridiron on Sunday afternoon to
challenge the Saskatchewan Roughriders at Mosaic Stadium.
The Bombers have had a tough time of it
<< Alouettes play host to slumping Lions
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Alouettes find out what life
without one of the top offensive stars in the league is like this week as the
team hosts the British Columbia Lions at McGill Stadium on Friday night.
The Alouettes ha
<< Boston hopes Lester can remain perfect against O's
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox may not have had the success they've
enjoyed in the past against the Baltimore Orioles this season, but Jon Lester
has certainly been able to maintain his dominance over the course of this
series.
<< Howard, Phillies seek to heat up versus Dodgers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - September is the time of year for temperatures to drop, but
for Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard it's his month to start heating up.
Howard and the Phillies will shoot for back-to-back winning series Wednesday
afternoon in
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers may have a few reinforcements in the lineup when the American League West front-runners conclude a three-game series tonight with the Kansas City Royals from Kauffman Stadium. Second baseman Ia
Struggling aces try for much-needed win in Rockies-Giants finale >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of aces desperate for a win collide tonight in the
Bay area, as Ubaldo Jimenez leads the Colorado Rockies into the finale of a
three-game series with Tim Lincecum and the rival San Francisco Giants.
Jimenez is tied
Angels take on Seattle's Vargas in series finale >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have had plenty of
difficulty producing runs as of late, and recent history says the team could
be in for a tough time again in tonight's matchup with Jason Vargas and the
Seattle
Heavy-hitting Yanks continue series with A's >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Six homers in two games and four consecutive victories have
helped the New York Yankees regain sole possession of first place in the
American League East. If they want to stay there, A.J. Burnett better figure
things out in a
Nationals, Marlins to wrap up charged-up set >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's tough to get excited about a September matchup between
the Nationals and Marlins, but Nyjer Morgan's actions last night may have
given this series some extra juice.
Morgan and Washington will conclude what could end u
It's less than a month until the NHL hockey betting season opens at MySportsbook.com and preparations are underway for another battle in the race to hoist Lord Stanley's mug in 2007.
As cup crazy fans prepare to place their bets, one online sportsbook ,MySportsbook.com, is offering hockey betting lines on the 2007/2007 Stanley Cup , who will bring it home this upcoming season.
Despite a poor showing in last season's playoffs and the loss of Steve Yzerman to retirement, the Detroit Red Wings are early favourites at this online sportsbook with wagering odds of 6-1. The Wings will look to offensive powerhouse Pavel Datsyuk and newly appointed captain Nicklas Lidstrom to lead one of the league's most prominent franchises.
Always a threat are the Ottawa Senators, with newly acquired goaltender Martin Gerber from the Stanley Cup champion ,Carolina Hurricanes. The Sens are second best in the rankings at a 7-1 bet, and odds makers at this sportsbook are optimistic that the Ottawa squad will fare better than last season's Eastern Conference semi-final upset to the Buffalo Sabres.
Also worth noting are the defending Stanley Cup champs Carolina Hurricanes, a 10-1 bet to repeat. Behind the Canes are the New Jersey Devils, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, and Anaheim Mighty Ducks all sit at 12-1. In the basement are the Washington Capitals, Chicago Blackhawks, and St. Louis Blues who all have 100-1 odds to win.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your hockey betting needs.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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