Sum greater than parts at Stephen F. Austin
NCAA Football Betting Lines
07/22/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Head coach J.C. Harper attributes Stephen F. Austin's turnaround over the past few seasons to a belief in the system he established.
"We had a plan, stayed on task with the plan, and haven't gotten off of it," the 2009 Southland Conference Coach of the Year said.
"That system relies on contributions from every aspect of Stephen F. Austin's football program, from the coaching staff, to the recruiters, to the athletic department to the players on the field. Harper notes that he "recruited guys that fit the system."
The system is now bearing considerable fruit.
In the midst of the turnaround is senior quarterback Jeremy Moses. The 2010 Walter Payton Award nominee is a deserving symbol of the Lumberjacks' improvement. He was the 2009 conference co-player of the year and is on pace to become the Southland's all-time leader in completions, touchdown passes, passing yards and total offense. With Moses at the helm last season, the Lumberjacks finished first in the Southland in total offense (468.9 yards per game) and second in points scored (34.8 ppg).
Harper is quick to sing Moses' praises, but continues to stress his "total team effort" philosophy. "In football, it is easier to talk about the offense," Harper said.
Generally, this tends to be the case. Most fans prefer the glitz and glam of a flashy offensive over the grit and gristle of a stalwart defense. It's the bright lights that make the eyes gleam, and it's touchdowns that make the fans scream.
Studying Harper's pedigree, it is clear to see which side of the ball he comes down on. Before taking over at Stephen F. Austin, Harper spent the vast majority of his career scheming to stop players like Moses. After a two-year graduate assistantship with Lou Holtz at Notre Dame, in which he worked with the offense, Harper began his career with defensive line coaching positions at Southwest Missouri State and Western Michigan. He has served as defensive coordinator for Southwest Missouri State, Northwestern State, Western Michigan and Stephen F. Austin.
Not surprisingly then, Harper points to a defender when remarking on his team's strides.
In 2007, Harper's inaugural head coaching season, the Lumberjacks failed to win a game. Decimated by injury, the team lost five players on opening day, including their top three running backs. In all, they utilized 12 players at the position throughout the season, including then-freshman linebacker Jabara Williams. Harper remembers how in one game Williams started at both running back and linebacker, while also contributing on special teams.
"I remember telling Jabara, 'I promise I'm gonna get you on one side of the ball,'" Harper said.
Harper kept his promise. In 2008, as the Lumberjacks improved to 4-8, Williams led the Southland Conference in tackles and was named First-Team All- SLC at linebacker. In 2009, the Jacks went 10-3 and earned an FCS playoff berth, eventually advancing to the second round.
Harper touts the system and Williams has proved to be an essential system guy - an individual willing to sacrifice personal gain for the betterment of the team.
Now Williams is entering his senior season as a Buck Buchanan Award nominee. He heads a unit which in 2009 ranked second in the SLC in both total defense and points allowed.
Aside from Williams, Harper says defensive linemen Kenneth Charles, Jacob Fincher and Rainey Sternes are players pivotal to the team's success.
Charles is another system guy. Last year, the 6-foot-3, 266-pound defensive end moved inside to tackle at Harper's request. Charles ended up earning Second-Team All-SLC honors.
Fincher, Harper hopes, is a defensive end capable of replacing departed playmaking lineman Tim Knickey. "He has shown it in practice, and is more powerful than Knicky," Harper said.
Sternes, a fifth-year senior, is expected to battle for a starting spot at defensive end.
Despite their varying status on the team, Harper considers all of these players pivotal - a potential defensive player of the year, a versatile all- conference performer, an unproven replacement and a fifth-year senior. It's a microcosm of "total team effort."
Harper's philosophy and the team's effort have proven to be effective. If patterns carry any weight, Stephen F. Austin should again prove to be an FCS playoff contender in 2010.
"We should know by our fifth game where we are at," Harper predicted. The Jacks open with tough games against Texas A&M, Albany, Northern Iowa and McNeese State.
Still, given his recent track record, it is safe to predict that Harper's team will be in a good place.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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2007 NFL Football Betting Preview
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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